Paper
A Positive Analysis of the National Debt Dependence Degree and Related Factors
- Authors:
- Dongju Li; Han Qiao
- Abstract
- Since the international financial crisis in 2008, active fiscal policy has been taken to respond the impact on economy in China. Accordingly, as one of the measures of the active fiscal policy, the issuance of the national debt played an active role in the financial crisis. In 2011, some scholars in China believe that the active fiscal policy should be stopped gradually with the pressure of the higher CPI and inflation. In this paper, we choose the period from the time when China began its reform and opening up to nowadays as the studying time section, and take the national debt dependence degree Y as the dependent variable and the national debt dependence degree Y-1, the macroscopic tax rate X1, and the fiscal income centralization degree X2 as the independent variable. According to BOX-COX transformation and Cointegration theory, we found that the macroscopic tax rate had a positive effect on the national debt dependence degree, which was weaker than the negative effect of the fiscal income centralization degree.
- Keywords
- Fiscal Policy; National Debt Dependence Degree; Cointegration Theory
- StartPage
- 44
- EndPage
- 48
- Doi