Future Salinity Intrusion in Central Vietnam Assessed Using Super-High Resolution Climate Model Output and Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Do Hoai Nam; Nguyen Quoc Dung; Keiko Udo; Akira Mano
The combined effect of low river flow in dry seasons and sea level rise tends to enhance saline concentration in estuaries. This study presents the assessment of inland salinity intrusion in the future climate (2075-2099) based on super-high resolution climate model output and sea level rise estimates under the emission scenario A1B. A simple correction method (scaling factor) is applied to correct the climate model output for the estimates of future rainfall in dry seasons which are then used as input for a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model to perform hydrodynamic and saline concentration analyses in the estuaries of the Vu Gia - Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. Results show that sea level rise is found the dominant cause of increases in saline concentration in the estuaries; while the effect of streamflow declination is not really significant due to the nature of the estuaries where river beds are quite steep in upstream portions which diminish the propagation of backwater effect. The future saline concentration is likely to increase in a range from 20% to 60% relative to the present-day (1979-2003) climate in response to sea level rise scenarios (low to high) derived from a multi-model simulation.
Super-High Resolution Climate Model; Low Streamflow; Sea Level Rise; Salinity Intrusion
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