Paper
SIR Model of Swine Influenza Epidemic in Abu Dhabi:Estimation of Vaccination Requirement
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Authors:
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Srdjan Denic; Mohamud Sheek-Hussein; M- Naim Anwar; Fathalla A. Rihan
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Abstract
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Mathematical models could be used to analyse dynamics of epidemic infections and create better insights into the measures that could prevent future epidemics. In this paper, we developed a basic SIR model which was fit to data from recent influenza A (H1N1) epidemic in Abu Dhabi. We estimated values for the threshold reproductive number which prevent outbreak of swine influence infection. Results suggest that vaccination of 59% of population could achieve ‘herd immunity’ and prevent spread of the disease. The results could guide future public health measures in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.
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Keywords
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Influenza A (H1N1); ODEs; Parameter Estimation Simulation; Stability; Steady States
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StartPage
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85
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EndPage
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89
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Doi
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10.5963/PHF0104002