Paper

SIR Model of Swine Influenza Epidemic in Abu Dhabi:Estimation of Vaccination Requirement


Authors:
Srdjan Denic; Mohamud Sheek-Hussein; M- Naim Anwar; Fathalla A. Rihan
Abstract
Mathematical models could be used to analyse dynamics of epidemic infections and create better insights into the measures that could prevent future epidemics. In this paper, we developed a basic SIR model which was fit to data from recent influenza A (H1N1) epidemic in Abu Dhabi. We estimated values for the threshold reproductive number which prevent outbreak of swine influence infection. Results suggest that vaccination of 59% of population could achieve ‘herd immunity’ and prevent spread of the disease. The results could guide future public health measures in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.
Keywords
Influenza A (H1N1); ODEs; Parameter Estimation Simulation; Stability; Steady States
StartPage
85
EndPage
89
Doi
10.5963/PHF0104002
Download | Back to Issue| Archive