Reliability Assessment of Wind Farm Active Power Based on Sequential Monte-Carlo Method

Jianhua Zhang; Cheng Jiang; Lei Yu; Dexian Liu; Yunkai Weng; Xinwei Wang
The conventional deterministic methods have been unable to accurately assess the active power of wind farm being the random and intermittent of wind power, and the probabilistic methods have been commonly used to solve this problem. In this paper the multi-state fault model is built considering running, outage and derating state of wind turbine, and then the reliability model of wind farm is established considering the randomness of the wind speed, the wind farm wake effects and turbine failure. The probability assessment methods and processes of wind farm active power based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method are given. The related programs are written in MATLAB, and the probability assessment for wind farm active power is carried out, the effectiveness and adaptability of the proposed reliability models and assessment methods are illustrated by analysis of the effects of reliability parameters and model parameters on assessment results.
Wind Farms; Multi-state Fault Model; Probability Assessment; Sequential Monte Carlo Method
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