Paper
Dynamic Risk Modelling for Optimizing Earthmoving Operations
- Authors:
- Adel Alshibani; Osama Moselhi
- Abstract
- Scheduling and cost estimating of the construction project are interdependent management functions despite the fact that different teams may be responsible for their respective development. Realistic project schedules and accurate cost estimates depend largely on the measures taken to account for uncertainties inherent in their development. This paper aims to present a newly developed methodology; and is designed to integrate the two functions and dynamically accounts for uncertainties associated with each function. The paper focuses primarily on earthmoving operations. The research methodology utilizes simulation based optimization to generate near-optimum fleets and estimate project total cost, while considering the uncertainties associated with project duration, direct and indirect cost dynamically over the project duration. The developed methodology is expected to provide contractors with a better understanding of the dynamic nature of uncertainties on large construction projects and their impacts on generated project schedules and cost estimates. To validate the proposed methodology and to illustrate its capabilities, it was applied to two example projects.
- Keywords
- Cost Estimate; Dynamic Uncertainties ; Earthmoving Fleet Equipment-selection; Simulation Optimization; Schedule
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- EndPage
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- Doi