Volume 3 Issue 5
Authors: Majid Rastegar; Saeed Rasekhi
Abstract: In this paper a robust hybrid algorithm for forecasting exchange rate trends is proposed and simulated. The existence of noise in time series of exchange rate causes many forecasting methods encounter with uncertainty prediction degree. This work introduces a coefficient framework based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) tools to overcome this problem. First time series samples of exchange rate are quantized by self organizing map (SOM) which is considered a powerful tool in ANNs. SOMs are different from other artificial neural networks (ANNs) since they use a neighborhood function that has the ability in preserving the topological of the input space. A signal processing at this level can be considered as a signal smoothing operation for denoising input data. In the next level the proposed algorithm uses Elman neural network for estimating the direction of quantized (training/test) input data. The simulated result shows that application of SOM neural network can overcome some limitations of conventional methods. To show the effectiveness and efficiency of proposed algorithm, the performance of the model is compared with a Markov model by using daily data of 7 November 2002 to 9 October 2006 to predict the trend of exchange of Dollar/Euro. The simulated results show that Markov model has superior predicting performance than proposed hybrid algorithms.
Keywords: Exchange Rate; ANN; Markov Model; SOM Neural Network; Dollar/Euro
Authors: Harold Welsch; David P. Price; Michael Stoica
Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between SME innovation, growth intentions and performance of small firms, by positioning innovation as the dependent variable and examining whether SME growth intention or past performance leads to increased innovation in small-to-medium-sized enterprises. Hypotheses are tested using samples from Australia and USA.
Keywords: Innovation; Past Performance; Growth Intentions
Authors: Masahiro Abe
Abstract: This paper describes an evaluation of an international cooperation project, COVAMS, using Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) in Malawi. COVAMS mainly disseminates improved agricultural methods and organizes afforestation and soil conservation activities for farmers in the Middle Shire area. This study administered a CVM survey there and revealed the benefit of COVAMS. The result shows that the benefit is much greater than the cost and that COVAMS is an effective project from an economic perspective.
Keywords: International Cooperation; Contingent Valuation Method (CVM); Willingness to Pay (WTP); Malawi; Developing Country
Authors: Yongqin Tao
Abstract: To deal with the evolutionary of complex network, a new evolutionary method using granular neural network (GNN) is proposed based on Yin Yang methodology. The theory of the granular quotient space is introduced to the neural network. At first input variables of the neural network are granulated to equivalence classes, so that the input variables of the network structure can be simplified and have certain clustering characteristics and strong diversity. And then the network parameters and the weights are optimized using evolutionary algorithms. Not only can the algorithm converge to globally optimal solution, but also it solves premature convergence problem efficiently. The simulation results show that the algorithm effectively narrows the search space and accelerates the speed of convergence.
Keywords: Complex Network; Granular Computing; Genetic Algorithm; Neural Network
Authors: Baoguo Shen; Wei Shen
Abstract: This study aims at empirically examining and investigating the relationships between innovation competency Climate and import-export performance of talents and the results of innovation in Hebei Province of China by Modeling Innovation Competency, Climate and Results (ICCR). According to the existing literature, the innovation competency of talents and the innovation climate of organization are important strategies that will improve innovative performance, help firms gain greater competitive advantage, and accelerate regional growth. In this study, the data were collected on the innovation from 500 foreign-related companies in China via a questionnaire and 10 experts were interviewed face to face. 15 items extracted from 24 items through the principal component analysis were chosen as independent variables, and 3 domains (competencies of foreign-related talents, the climate for innovation and results of innovation) as latent by using Structural Equation Model (SEM) method to verify the hypothetical models. Finally, the paper not only builds up the structural equation model of foreign-related innovation talents, but also proves the model systematicness by using quantitative methods and researches the relative importance of the competency variables for the model. The paper has an important significance to speeding up the transformation of economic development, making the policies for talent development and cultivating the innovation foreign-related talents.
Keywords: Innovation; foreign-related talent; coastal development; Hebei China; Modeling
Authors: A. O. Akinrinde; E. O. Oyetunji; A. E. Oluleye
Abstract: This paper deals with the scheduling problem of minimizing number of tardy jobs on a single machine with release dates. The problem is considered as NP-Hard, because it is difficult to solve and no known polynomial bounded algorithm exist that guarantees optimal solution. Therefore, four approximation algorithms (JB1, JB2, JB3 and JB4) were proposed to solve the problem. The proposed algorithms were compared with two heuristics (DAU and EOO) that were proposed previously for this same problem. Twenty-two problem sizes ranging from three to five hundred jobs with fifty different simulated problems for each problem size, which gave one thousand, one hundred problems were solved. The four algorithms were coded using Microsoft visual basic 6.0 while statistica 8.0 was used to analyze the results. Performance evaluation was based on both effectiveness and efficiency. Experimental results were provided while appropriate recommendations were made.
Keywords: Scheduling; Single Machine; Tardy Jobs; Heuristic; Performance Ratio