Water Resources Modelling Using System Dynamic in Vensim

Reza Mastoori; Reza Moshtagh; Hassan Pourfallah Koushali
In this paper, we discuss the use of system dynamics (SD) techniques as a methodology by which to study dynamically complex problems in water resources management. A dynamic system method with objective modelling is based on feedback; hence it can model complicated water resources systems and can act as a useful management tool. In this study, a dynamic system model is applied to the Sefīd-Rūd Watershed in northern Iran. This model includes the river catch basin, dam reservoir and the irrigation system of the studied area. Finally, the liability of the model is tested and verified with observed data and statistics criteria. The risk analysis of water demand deficit in the water supply of the Sefīd-Rūd provided by the Sefīd-Rūd dam is simulated and analysed according to three different scenarios of 15%, 30% and 45% of the reservoir intake water deficit as a result of constructing new dam on the Qizil Uzun River, using dynamic system analysis with a Vensim model. The results indicate that the liability of water demand provisions in normal conditions (75%) in case of a water intake deficit varies; in abnormal conditions such as 15%, 30% and 45%, the liability adjusts to 48, 57 and 35, respectively. This has the potential to cause serious troubles and challenges for farmers in the region, struggling to meet their water demands
Sefīd-Rūd Da; Vensim; Irrigation Water Demand
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