Paper
Estimating Project Makespan for Multi-critical Paths Networks
- Authors:
- Amnon Gonen
- Abstract
- In this study,we concentrate on a very common project management problem, called estimatingthe project makespan. The literature usually uses the Central Limit theorem to estimate the project makespan. Here, we show that in multi-critical paths projects, the project’s makespan behaves differently with the regular estimates. We analyzed project makespan using both the analytic approach and simulation. Our results show that, in many cases, it is biased to use the critical path length when attempting to estimate project makespan. The current study presents the distribution of the project makespan for cases where there are several critical paths. It shows the results for common probability distributions of the critical path duration. The results of the current study provide users with better estimates and upper bound in regard to project completion time.
- Keywords
- PERT; Central Limit Theorem; Project Makespan; Simulation; Project Completion Time
- StartPage
- 183
- EndPage
- 190
- Doi