Volume 5 Issue 1

Authors: FALODE Olugbenga Adebanjo; OSHINIBOSI Yetunde Aderonke

Abstract: Real options analysis is a valuable tool in asset valuation; however, its application in evaluating oil and gas reserves is yet to be widely accepted, though many investigators have presented its potential advantages. This paper demonstrates the applicability and importance of real options analysis in the valuation of a typical Nigerian crude oil reserve. The cost data utilized represent real data for a typical Nigerian oil field. An improved version of the Black and Scholes (BS) model was developed by eliminating the assumption of a constant volatility. Crude oil price data from 1987 to 2012 were analysed with the volatilities of the return on crude oil price computed, and a time series model was developed which replicates this pattern of volatility. This was achieved by the use of a GARCH (General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedacity) model. The project was evaluated using the traditional NPV valuation method, the original BS model and the BS model with non-constant volatility. The results obtained using these methods were then compared. The real options valuation method provided the most accurate and reliable estimate of crude oil reserves using the BS model, which incorporates option values for various levels of volatility.

Keywords: Real Options; Valuation; Volatility; Net Present Value; Uncertainty; Crude Oil Reserves


Authors: Amine ZENJARI; Mohamed SABAR

Abstract: This article presents a simulation approach for staffs scheduling and rescheduling into a dynamic environment of a paced multi-product assembly center based on multi-agent algorithm. Our purpose is to investigate the impact of modelling flexibility and employee preferences, on the quality and- cost of the shift-scheduling solutions. The proposed simulation takes into consideration the individual competencies, mobility and preferences of each employee, as well as the personnel and competency requirements associated with each assembly activity given both the current master assembly schedule and the line balancing for each product. Experimental results show that flexibility may lead to a reduction of the staff’s cost allocation and improve employee satisfaction.

Keywords: Personnel Shift Scheduling; Multi-Agent Systems; Employee’ Preferences; Cross-Training; Flexible Work Schedule


Authors: Juan J Jardón U; Staffan Hulten

Abstract: This article analyses the evolution of the Francis Turbine within the context of the metal product manufacturing industry. It examines the evolving design of the turbines and technological change within the industry. It is argued that the production of artefacts and equipment as machinery can only be understood according to the concept of technological change both in the equipment itself and in the related industry. These technological changes refer not only to the initial design of the turbine itself, but also to the production processes necessary to its improvement. This article presents a series of data from the main producers of turbines from the 1920s to the mid-1990s, and the sites at which they were installed. The technical resume of these turbines is captured by means of specific speed following other studies before presenting analysis, and results are in good agreement with previous studies. However, this article also explains the evolution of the turbine according to the industry sector.

Keywords: Evolution; Hydraulic Turbines; Specific Speed; Metal Product Manufacturing Industry; Dam Hydrological Resources Exploitation


Authors: XU Peng

Abstract: Agricultural products financing broadens the application range of inventory financing, but agricultural products financing relies on a high level of logistics service providers, which is called the fourth-party logistics(FPLs) because of agricultural products’ slow deterioration, difficulty for transport and storage etc. FPLs will subcontract logistics tasks to the third-party logistics (TPLs) after they accept the tasks from banks. TPLs’ effort will influences FPLs’ profits, as well as the relationship between FPLs and banks. Thus it is significant to make TPLs put more effort into the operation. This paper introduces FPLs into model of the business and uses principal-agency theory to investigate incentive contracts between a FPL and a TPL. Here, we establish a multi-task principal-agent model, and considers situations with TPLs’ unfairness aversion. Results show that TPLs with unfairness aversion will exert extra effort when TPLs provide a higher reward. The stronger the sense of the TPLs’ fairness aversion is, the more the TPLs will increase extra effort, thus, FPLs gain more profits compared with that in traditional principal-agent mode.

Keywords: Agricultural Product Financing; Third-party Logistics (TPLs); Fourth-party Logistics (FPLs); Incentive Contract